If Pakistan and Afghanistan Unable to De-Escalate, Then What?One big problem is the lack of options to de-escalate. Talks have failed . Neither side trusts the other. Leverage is limited. Another bigger problem if de-escalation not possible: Then What?
Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan are not new, nor are the attacks, but they are rapidly ramping up at a time of shifting dynamics in the nuclear armed region. Pakistan meanwhile has stepped up its targeting of India as a key supporter of anti-Pakistan militants, who have found space in Afghanistan. A longstanding reality of the region is that each country employs militants as proxies. India uses them against Pakistan; Pakistan deploys them against India and Afghanistan; and Afghanistan uses them against Pakistan or other warring groups. The persistent and growing presence of militant groups in both Pakistan and Afghanistan exacerbates an already confounding problem presented by the deep mistrust and dislike each country has for the other. With each new outbreak of tit for tat attacks, killing numerous soldiers and civilians on both side, the options to de-escalate tensions are becoming increasingly scarce, despite a flurry of calls for calmer heads to prevail from concerned neighbors, China, Iran and Russia. Previous attempts at talks have failed to bring about any meaningful or lasting peace between Pakistan and Afghanistan. There’s little indication that future rounds will be different given the lack of any progress on the ground. Brief cease fires are inevitably interrupted by a resurgence in fighting. The complexity of the region is notoriously oversimplified, a reflection of the vague and general understanding most countries have of the many deeply complex and varied dynamics at play in the area. Western intelligence, which has its serious shortcomings at the best of time, has little to no presence on the ground in Afghanistan, having decided to isolate the Taliban after they returned to power following their 2021 defeat of the U. S. -led invasion. Given the deeper ties between the Taliban and India and Pakistan’s relentless reference to India’s involvement in the fighting, the fear of escalation would seem justified. The big question is what would that escalation look like and will it engulf the larger region to include India? It’s an impossible question to answer, but whatever the answer it is certain to mean a difficult time ahead for the people of the region, who are tired of war and the ever present specter of war. © 2026 Kathy Gannon |